Big serge substack

It is probably safe to say that the current week Juneis shaping up to be one of the most significant of the entire Russo-Ukrainian War. On Monday, all eyes were on the Ukrainian Armed Forces and their much anticipated summer counteroffensive, big serge substack, which began with a series of battallion level attacks across the breadth of the theater. Instead, the entire Ukrainian offensive was overshadowed by the sudden and entirely unexpected failure of the dam at Nova Kakhovka on the lower Big serge substack. In any case, the legalities are not the main point here.

In the last 72 hours or so, the pro-Russian side of the internet has been sent into an tailspin of panic over a new Ukrainian counteroffensive which is currently being launched in the Kharkov region, with the intention of compromising the Russian army grouping at Izyum. The panic was triggered by claims that Ukraine was advancing unopposed, encircling - or perhaps even capturing - the city of Balakliya - and on the verge of cutting off supply lines to Izyum. A modest city with a prewar population of perhaps 50, people, Izyum was always slated to be a focal point in this war, due to its location at a critical intersection. The topography of northeastern Ukraine is dominated by a few critically important features which determine patterns of movement. The region is furthermore shaped by the Severodonetsk River - alternatively called simply the Donets from which the Donbas, or Donets Basin, draws its name - which snakes lazily around the plain. Izyum is a strategically crucial city because it is where the highway crosses the river; as an added cherry on top, the Oskil River - a major tributary of the Donets - confluences with the Donets less than five miles to the east of Izyum, meaning the city essentially sits directly on the intersection of all the most important geographic features of the region. A highly simplified map of the area looks like this:.

Big serge substack

Check this out me korosho drugies: bigserge. This guy is fucking hilarious. Kyive was a trap. Kharkiv was a trap. Lyman was a trap. Kherson is a trap. He never gives up! And he's kinda funny. I love it. Like Kos' son, I wanna be an airborne Ranger, I wanna be a living danger, I wanna be a flamewar troll, I wanna rock n roll but I can't caussa dk flag policy. The Ukrainians have winter uniforms that weren't corrupted away. They have washing machines and the best armaments of the most advanced economies on earth. They don't have to beg Best Korea and Iran for third rate gear.

There was even a rumor that Zaluzhny told Zelensky that the counteroffensive had failed already in the opening weeks of the operation.

As the calendar barrels into another year and we tick away the days of February, notable anniversaries are marked off in sequence. The nature of the war changed dramatically after a kinetic and mobile opening phase. With the collapse of the negotiation process whether thanks to Boris Johnson or not , it became clear that the only way out of the conflict would be through the strategic defeat of one party by the other. Thanks to a pipeline of western support in the form of material, financial aid, and ISR and targeting assistance which allowed Ukraine to transcend its rapidly evaporating indigenous war economy, it became clear that this would be a war of industrial attrition, rather than rapid maneuver and annihilation. Russia began to mobilize resources for this sort of attritional war in the Autumn of , and since then the war has attained its present quality - that of a firepower intensive but relatively static positional struggle. The nature of this attritional-positional war lends itself to analytic ambiguity, because it denies the most attractive and obvious signs of victory and defeat in large territorial changes. Instead, a whole host of anecdotal, small scale positional analysis, and foggy data has to suffice, and this can be easily misconstrued or misunderstood.

In the couple of years before he died in , aged 91, the Finnish composer Jean Sibelius would invite musicians from the orchestras in Helsinki to visit him at his home, Ainola, 25 miles from the city. Then in his mid-twenties, Berglund was soon to dedicate himself to conducting — in Finland first, and then internationally. No other conductor, except perhaps Herbert von Karajan, would do more to introduce Sibelius to lateth-century audiences after decades in which his reputation had slipped. Popularity was never the problem — not in Finland, Britain and America, where most of his seven symphonies, the violin concerto and patriotic tone poem Finlandia always pulled big crowds. Rather, it was because in the last three decades of his life he produced no new major works. That was the whole conversation. Among musicians in a country where the inability to engage in small talk is a matter of national pride, the meeting has gone down in legend, while also raising a tricky question: why did Sibelius ask about Schoenberg? The pioneering Austrian composer had died in but his presence — and particularly his tone compositional technique — still loomed large over postwar classical music. Was this a flash of insecurity?

Big serge substack

Science is a rigorous, systematic endeavor that builds and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the world. The history of science spans the majority of the historical record, with the earliest written records of identifiable predecessors to modern science dating to Bronze Age Egypt and Mesopotamia from around to BCE. Their contributions to mathematics, astronomy , and medicine entered and shaped the Greek natural philosophy of classical antiquity , whereby formal attempts were made to provide explanations of events in the physical world based on natural causes, while further advancements, including the introduction of the Hindu—Arabic numeral system , were made during the Golden Age of India. Some Greek manuscripts lost in Western Europe were preserved and expanded upon in the Middle East during the Islamic Golden Age [19] and later by the efforts of Byzantine Greek scholars who brought Greek manuscripts from the dying Byzantine Empire to Western Europe in the Renaissance. The recovery and assimilation of Greek works and Islamic inquiries into Western Europe from the 10th to 13th century revived " natural philosophy ", [20] [21] [22] which was later transformed by the Scientific Revolution that began in the 16th century [23] as new ideas and discoveries departed from previous Greek conceptions and traditions. New knowledge in science is advanced by research from scientists who are motivated by curiosity about the world and a desire to solve problems.

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It's destroying the Ukrainian Military, including their reserves and equipment, at a steady rate. On the defense, the BTG being infantry poor has to fight from behind a thin screen, and inflict defeats on the enemy with its ranged fires. Mar 3, Expand full comment Reply Share. As the calendar barrels into another year and we tick away the days of February, notable anniversaries are marked off in sequence. Russian bases of control around Avdiivka and Bakhmut provide the necessary space to begin a two-pronged operation towards Konstyantinivka, bypassing and enveloping the strongly held Ukrainian fortress of Toretsk. Military history writer Big Serge has published an excellent essay that explains much of what has puzzled observers of the conflict in Ukraine—why does Russia appear to be hanging back, what happened to that much touted offensive, and some other matters as well. We get a picture something like this Ukrainian Army level formations are absent because they do not exist :. So, drones clearly offer a lethal and important battlefield expedient, but they are neither a genuine replacement for artillery nor an arm of clear advantage for Ukraine. The Russian maneuver scheme must be held in reference to their minimum end state objectives - namely, the capture of the remaining Donbas urban agglomerations around Slovyansk and Kramatorsk though we should not assume that the war or Russian ambitions end there. There was even a rumor that Zaluzhny told Zelensky that the counteroffensive had failed already in the opening weeks of the operation. The choice Ukraine now faces is whether to continue to funnel forces into the salient that they have created for themselves - in other words, Ukraine now gets to decide the scale of its losses. Ultimately, perhaps your judgement on the matter simply reflects your larger belief about who is winning the war. Already, Russia has begun to deploy huge reserves to this theater, and fear is beginning to show among the more operationally aware Ukrainians. Russia has been doing much in the war torn territories to rebuild and make life tolerable for Russian speaking Ukrainians, now fully Russian.

Military history writer Big Serge has published an excellent essay that explains much of what has puzzled observers of the conflict in Ukraine—why does Russia appear to be hanging back, what happened to that much touted offensive, and some other matters as well. First, however, here are some basic points that will serve as guide posts. Big Serge is an amazing commentator.

This allowed the Russian air force to operate around Avdiivka with something approaching impunity , dropping hundreds of glide bombs with the power to - unlike artillery shells, let alone tiny FPV warheads - level the fortified concrete blocks that normally make Soviet vintage cities so durable in urban fighting. Again, this is an effort to pressure Scholz, who offers a couple days of token resistance before he caves. The most important of these is the Crimean canal, which carries Dnieper water to Crimea, but there are also a series of irrigation works which are vital to agricutlure in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. So, Russian force generation is growing over time, and not simply regenerating losses. This will continue until the regular Motor Rifle and Tank units are ready for attacking operations. Russo-Ukrainian War: The Deluge bigserge. Same thing, every time. Despite a variety of theories about this or that game changing weapon, clever maneuver scheme, or superior western training, the reality of this war for the last 18 months has been one of grinding and laborious industrial war, battering through fixed defenses in a maelstrom of concrete, steel, and high explosives. Europe faces a variety of problems, like labor shortages, exorbitant energy costs, and a consensus driven decision making culture that is slow to allocate significant resources. Russias morgilization is so pathetic they are asked to spend their own money on tampons instead of the bandages Putin, the worlds richest man can't provide. It's a fascinating inversion of the Russo-Soviet mobilization system that existed in the last century, which finds the Russian military in similar straights to the dilemma's US law placed on US Army planners in the lead up to WWI. Thats my more reasoned comment. This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Third, we need to note the effects that this will have on a potential amphibious operation. I believe Russia was retaining water to maintain the power to create flooding in the event of a Ukrainian amphibious assault across the lower Dnieper.