Electoral calculus

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Electoral calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model , which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. Across the eight general elections from to [8]. It was listed by The Guardian in as one of the " most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. John Rentoul in The Independent referred to the site after the election.

It was listed by The Guardian in as one of the " most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions.

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Read the headline prediction, and also see the full details about which seats would be won and lost if there were a general election tomorrow. Our current headline prediction for what would happen if there were a UK General Election tomorrow. Make your own predictions both for the entire country and for any particular Westminster constituency in England, Scotland and Wales. See predictions for your own seat, including ward-level predictions, an interactive map, and political and demographic characteristics. Visit our Scotland home page for polls, predictions, and the chance to make your own predictions for the next Westminster election in Scotland. Visit our Northern Ireland home page for polls, predictions, and the chance to make your own predictions for the next Westminster election in the province.

Electoral calculus

Poll History. Current state of party support in Scotland, along with a record of Scottish opinion polls since Dec Current state of party support in Northern Ireland, along with a record of NI opinion polls since Dec Introductory article to the science of opinion polls, describing the importance of sample size and quotas. Historical record of polls published in the run-up to recent general elections. Pick a year from:. Poll History All national polls since Complete record of national opinion polls since the last general election in Dec Updated at least monthly. Scotland Scottish opinion polls Current state of party support in Scotland, along with a record of Scottish opinion polls since Dec

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Paul Whiteley correlates Labour and Conservative vote intentions data with the actual polling day results in all UK general elections since

Contents move to sidebar hide. Next statement date 30 May due by 13 June Toggle limited content width. We'd also like to use analytics cookies so we can understand how you use our services and to make improvements. Retrieved 6 February You can change your cookie settings at any time. Accept analytics cookies Reject analytics cookies View cookies. Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. Use this service to order a signed certificate of incorporation, which can include key details about the company and a statement of good standing. Archived from the original on 5 May Retrieved 17 October Hide this message.